Oregon’s Estate Tax Under Threat: Understanding Initiative Petition 51
Overview of the Estate Tax Situation in Oregon
A significant proposal is making waves in Oregon as a ballot initiative seeks to abolish the state’s estate tax. Initiative Petition 51 is gaining traction amidst the financial strain resulting from federal budget cuts linked to President Trump’s controversial Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Current Financial Impact of Oregon’s Estate Tax
In the 2024–25 fiscal year, Oregon’s estate tax contributed a whopping $423 million—a notable increase from $339 million the previous year. With the state grappling with a slowing economy and impending budget challenges, this revenue has become increasingly vital for state lawmakers.
The Economic Consequences of Federal Budget Cuts
Projected Losses from Federal Assistance Programs
According to the Legislative Fiscal Office (LFO) of Oregon, upcoming federal cuts are forecasted to reach a staggering $15.1 billion over the next few budget cycles. Predominantly targeting programs that assist Oregonians with the lowest incomes, these cuts will have dire consequences if enacted.
Breakdown of Projected Cuts
- 2025–27: $1.03 billion
- 2027–29: $5.6 billion
- 2029–31: $8.01 billion
Oregon House Speaker Julie Fahey (D-Eugene) expressed concern, stating, “These policies will devastate Oregon families for years to come.”
Initiative Petition 51: What It Proposes
On September 30, Oregon Secretary of State Tobias Read approved a certified ballot title for Initiative Petition 51, which reads: “Nullifies estate tax, which applies to estates of $1 million plus; prohibits similar local taxes.”
Current State of Oregon’s Estate Tax
Oregon is one of only 12 states to implement an estate tax, affecting estates valued at $1 million or more. This tax starts at 10% and can rise to 16% for estates exceeding $9.5 million. Notably, Oregon’s threshold is the lowest in the nation, with Rhode Island’s threshold standing at $1.8 million.
The Push to Eliminate the Estate Tax
State Representative Kevin Mannix (R-Salem) has been a longstanding advocate for revoking Oregon’s estate tax. His prior attempt to phase out the tax—Measure 84—failed in 2012 but has not deterred his efforts.
Recent Legislative History
In recent sessions, various bills aimed at raising the estate tax threshold or eliminating the tax entirely were proposed but did not pass. Contrasting perspectives continue to emerge, with progressive groups like Tax Fairness Oregon staunchly opposing any changes, while several Republican lawmakers and business organizations support higher thresholds or a complete repeal.
Challenges Ahead for the Initiative
Mannix and his backers are contesting language in the proposed ballot title. They argue it misrepresents the measure’s core intent and could mislead voters. The appeal deadline for the certified ballot title is set for October 14.
Next Steps: Gathering Support
If the End the Death Tax campaign pursues the initiative, it must gather 117,173 valid signatures from Oregon voters to qualify for the November 2026 ballot.
Conclusion
The fate of Oregon’s estate tax hangs in the balance, with the upcoming Initiative Petition 51 potentially reshaping the financial landscape of the state. As economic forces shift and public opinion sways, Oregonians will be watching closely to see how this pivotal question unfolds.
For ongoing updates and in-depth analysis on this initiative and more, support local journalism efforts like the Oregon Journalism Project—committed to covering state affairs that impact all Oregonians.
