Weekly Housing Inventory Update: Trends and Insights for 2025

The housing market in 2025 is showcasing some fascinating trends in inventory, listings, prices, and mortgage rates. As we navigate through this year, significant shifts are affecting both buyers and sellers. This article dives into the latest developments in housing inventory, new listings data, price reductions, mortgage rates, and more, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the housing market.

Weekly Housing Inventory Trends

In the recent past, housing inventory levels typically peaked in October or November, a shift from pre-COVID patterns. However, a notable transition has occurred since mid-June when mortgage rates began to decrease. Surprisingly, despite mortgage rates consistently hovering around 6.50% and above, inventory levels saw a decline in August, contrary to expectations.

Current Inventory Levels

• Weekly Inventory Change (Aug. 22 – Aug. 29): Decreased from 861,238 to 860,728.
• Year-on-Year Comparison (Last Year): Inventory rose from 698,161 to 704,654 during the same period.

Despite ongoing high mortgage rates, year-over-year inventory growth dropped from a peak of 33% to 22%. This unexpected decline, paired with the current inventory count, is a trend that will warrant close observation as the year progresses.

New Listings Insights

New listing activity peaked during the week of May 23 with a total of 83,143 listings. However, subsequent weeks have witnessed a gradual decrease. Initially, there was optimism surrounding the possibility of reaching the target of 80,000 listings by 2025. Unfortunately, our peak period failed to sustain consecutive weeks above this number, leading to a traditional seasonal decline.

• New Listings Last Week:
  • 2025: 63,761
  • 2024: 59,566

During the housing bubble crash, new listings soared to between 250,000 and 400,000 weekly, providing perspective on current market conditions.

Price Cut Percentages

In an average year, around one-third of homes see price reductions. Higher inventory levels combined with elevated mortgage rates have intensified this phenomenon, driving a greater percentage of price cuts compared to last year. This trend reflects an increasingly favorable market for buyers in 2025.

Price Projection for 2025

For 2025, a modest increase in home prices of about 1.77% is anticipated, indicating a continued trend of negative real-home prices. Notably, last year’s incorrect forecast of a 2.33% increase was rendered inaccurate due to falling rates and improved demand. As a result, home prices saw a 4% increase in 2024.

• Recent Price Reduction Percentages:
  • Trends exhibit an increase from the previous year, a sign of shifting market dynamics.

Mortgage Rates and 10-Year Yield

Mortgage rates are a key element influencing housing trends. In 2025, projections indicate rates ranging between 5.75% and 7.25%, with the 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.70%.

Surprising Developments

Despite expectations of rising rates due to ongoing market speculation, recent data indicated some of the lowest mortgage rates of the year. This unexpected outcome arose even amidst significant inflation reports. The anticipation of upcoming job reports next week adds complexity to this scenario.

The Role of Mortgage Spreads

Mortgage spreads significantly impact pricing strategies in 2025. Favorable pricing continues to be observed due to improved mortgage spreads compared to previous years.

• Current Spread Insights:
  • If spreads return to normal, mortgage rates might decrease, redefining the pricing landscape.

Purchase Application Data

This year marks the first month where housing data has been tested with rates beneath 6.64%. Early indicators show a solid performance, with both weekly and year-over-year data presenting positive trends.

2025 Application Data Overview:

• 16 Positive Readings
• 11 Negative Readings
• 30 Consecutive Weeks of Positive Year-Over-Year Data

This surge in applications offers a promising start, indicating resilience in the housing market.

Total Pending Sales and Weekly Sales Analysis

Recent total pending sales data reveals slight growth year-over-year, despite fluctuations in mortgage rates.

• Total Pending Sales:
  • 2025: 376,916
  • 2024: 365,909

Weekly Pending Sales Overview:

• Weekly Pending Sales Last Week:
  • 2025: 65,701
  • 2024: 64,255

Expect fluctuations due to seasonal variations and holidays.

The Week Ahead: Anticipated Job Reports

As we approach the significant jobs week, the market anticipates critical data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decisions.

With multiple labor reports due, the market could experience volatility based on impending economic forecasts.

Key Takeaway

Navigating the housing market in 2025 entails understanding inventory shifts, price trends, and mortgage rates. Whether you’re a buyer, seller, or investor, being equipped with the latest insights will empower informed decisions in this dynamic landscape.

Stay tuned for further updates as we continue to monitor these developments closely.